The media is suddenly full of real estate recovery stories across the Nation.
But real estate is local right? So what happening to the luxury towns in San Diego County? Where are the statistics?
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Attributed to either Mark twain (1835- 1910) or Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881)
However, if ever there was a telling statistics graph, this is the one:
The turning point for the La Jolla real estate market was, ummm let me guess – December 2012? Inventory levels continued to crash and more homes closed in the higher ranges causing the median price to climb steeply the other way.
Things are leveling out now, but there is now a severe shortage of homes to choose from and some price ranges ($2 to 3 million for instance) is seeing activity at level not seen in half a decade. The average days on the market for La Jolla homes in this price range, that closed escrow this year, is just 53 days compared to 122 days for the same period last year.
The overall stats for La Jolla real estate sales in 2013 are interesting too:
|Year||Sales||Days on market|
The situation in the Del Mar real estate market is not quite so clear cut:
Inventory levels increased in the last quarter of 2012, but certainly tipped around the same time as the La Jolla market, with the average median price falling a little too.
There were 61 sales in the Del Mar real estate market this year, with an average of 110 days on the market, but 25 of those sales were under $1,000,000 which I believe pulled the median price back down.
If Del Mar was muddled, then the Rancho Santa Fe real estate market is on a roller coaster looking at the graphic!
But “The Ranch” always has has it’s own unique ecosystem. Marketing time invariably takes longer, with some owners start out with aggressive asking prices, and many times unique floorplans taking longer to find the right buyer. The difference between list price and sold price, is also generally higher than in other luxury markets.
There have been 62 sales so far this year, (with only 3 under $1,000,000). The average days on the market was 170 – although 17 of those sales were under 30 days.
For the same period in 2012 there were 57 sales, 167 days on market, with only 12 with less than 30 days.
When the Rancho Santa Fe market turned in December 2012, improving conditions encouraged, many home owners to try their luck – adding to inventory levels. More lower priced homes closed in March and April, pulling the median price down.
Median prices are not necessarily the best indicator of home price movements, I personally prefer the Case Shiller index – the subject of the next article.
Definition: the median is the numerical value separating the higher half of a data sample, from the lower half.
I have deliberately not talked about the many multiple offer situations where competing buyers outbid each other, especially in the lower price ranges – in this case under $2,000,000 – as this article is just about the statistics 🙂